Adversarial Risk Analysis as a Decomposition Method for Structured Expert Judgement Modelling

We argue that adversarial risk analysis may be incorporated into the structured expert judgement modelling toolkit for cases in which we need to forecast actions of competitors based on knowledge. This is relevant areas such as cybersecurity, security, defence and business competition. As a consequence, present approach facilitate elicitation probabilities over other intelligent agents by decomposing them multiple, but simpler, assessments later combined together using rationality model adversary produce final probabilistic forecast. then illustrate key concepts strategies this support its implementation.